Thursday, September 4, 2008

A couple of thoughts.

As the NFL season starts today, I will leave you with a few football-related thoughts.

1. I keep hearing about how in college and the NFL alike, more and more head coaches are leaving the play calling to their coordinators. While this certainly makes sense, I have to ask: what exactly does that leave for the coaches to do? If the offensive coordinator calls the offensive plays and the defensive coordinator calls the defensive plays, and special teams play is pretty straightforward, (kick the ball! Stay in your lane to keep containment! Or: Try to return the ball for a touchdown! Stay in your lane!) and the players talk to the position coaches for play advice...what does that leave for the head coach? He basically just becomes a motivational speaker in the locker room. Is that really worth the kinds of salaries that NFL head coaches make? At least in college they're in charge of recruiting players, but in the NFL the signing decisions are made by the GM. The coach just chooses which players to cut. Since we're trying to make this position obsolete, why not just have the offensive coordinator pick which offensive players to keep, the defensive coordinator pick which defensive players to keep, and the special teams coach decide what players he gets to fill the leftover slots with for special teams play?

2. Why is it that the Bengals are always projected to be one of the best teams in the NFL? The oh-so-godly tandem of Carson Palmer and Chad Ocho-Cinco has only taken the team to the playoffs a whopping once, and they got bounced in the first round. (Granted, Palmer was injured, but that's not much of an excuse...Jon Kitna had a good game, the Bengals had one of the best defenses in the league that year and a tandem of receivers that Ryan Leaf could throw to and look amazing, and were up at halftime.) That year, 2005, was their first winning season since 1990 when they went 9-7, and their only winning season of this millenium. That means that 1990 was their only winning season in the 90s, their first since the 1988 Super Bowl that they lost, and then there was a 15 year stretch of suck before they were a relevant team for one year before they went back to sucking. Only now, they suck and are still somehow considered one of the best teams in the league. There's a reason that Homer Simpson once joked "yeah, that'll happen when the Bengals win the Super Bowl." That joke is always relevant, because the Bengals ALWAYS SUCK. The Cincinnati Bengals? Who dey?

3. An extension of the last one, why is Carson Palmer always rated as one of the best QBs in the league? Lists like that always go 1. Tom Brady, 2. Peyton Manning, (with the note that they're interchangable) 3. Either Carson Palmer or Tony Romo. I disagree with both, because I personally believe that Ben Roethlisberger is hands down the third best QB in the league, and that's even without any bias as a Steelers fan. At least, however, I could understand Romo. He's a very skilled, impressive player. Carson Palmer is, too, but until he shows that he can beat teams consistently through the air like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger can, I don't think he belongs among the leagues elite.

Football statistics are much harder to quantify than baseball ones, as Football Outsiders and similar organizations are much younger than, say, SABR, and so it's a lot harder to get a picture of a QB's value. Throw in the fact that football has much more to do with your entire team working well together than baseball does (running through a hole at 11 guys with offensive linemen blocking for you isn't exactly the same as a 1-on-1 with a pitcher and batter) and it's damn near impossible. Any football stat reflects just as much about a team's ability as it does an individual's. I could point to the fact that Ben Roethlisberger's passer rating (horrible stat or not) last year was second only to Tom Brady and his record-breaking season, and that he and Peyton Manning are tied for the NFL record as far as perfect games based on passer rating and Roethlisberger hasn't been in the league nearly as long. I could prove that he threw the second-most touchdowns last year, or that he threw less INTs than Romo AND Palmer, but advocates of Romo and Palmer could point to their better scores in more sophisticates stats like DYAR and DVOA. Either way, though, we can't remove the stats from the rest of the team's performance. If somebody comes up with a metric that, I guess we can settle this argument once and for all. But until then, consider this:

Last year, Ben Roethlisberger had an amazing season by any account, and he did it working behind one of the worst lines in the NFL. He did it while constantly having to avoid sacks. He did it with a receiver corps of Hines Ward (posession receiver), Santonio Holmes (emerging deep threat), Heath Miller (a TE, kind of a red zone target) and NO OTHER TALENTED PLAYERS. He's done this for his whole career. He's never exactly had Marvin Harrsion, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, Edgerrin James out of the backfield to check-down and one of the best offensive lines in the game like Peyton Manning had for so many years. He didn't have Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth to spread defenses out with. He didn't have Chad Ocho-Cinco, TJ Houshmanzadeh, Chris Henry and a solid line to work with. He's never had a guy like TO that's an end-zone threat on every single down (though Santonio Holmes may get there some day.) You'll notice that the Steelers are the only team where I listed a tight end as the third best receiver. The thing is, Heath Miller is not even an elite tight end. He's above average, sure...he won't make you hold out for a better target, but he's not Antonio Gates, either. The Colts have the Steelers beat in the TE department too with Dallas Clark, and Clark still isn't one of their best receivers.

Even today QBs like Manning, Brady, Romo and Palmer have much better receiving corps, and Roethlisberger outperforms most of them them. When the Patriots were winning Super Bowls with no receiver depth, the media went on and on about how they "need to get Tom Brady some talent and really see what he can do." When Roethlisberger puts up great numbers with a thin receiving corps and wins a Super Bowl in his sophomore season, the media ranks him as like the 5th-9th best QB in the league.

4. Why is it always "Cleveland's year?" It seems like every year, the Browns bring in these big-name free agents that will "finally put them over the top," and it never happens. They had a good season last year, mostly due to what is emerging as a pretty good offense. They could have been very scary if their 30th-place defense was upgraded. What did the team do? They signed over-hyped journeyman Donte Stallworth to help an offense that at this point really doesn't need it. That's why Cleveland is never the best team in the AFC North.

5. What the hell happened to USC's offense in the pros? Matt Leinart is on the bench so Kurt Warner can play. Reggie Bush has been an above average RB when you factor in his receiving, but certainly hasn't lived up to his hype. LenDale White had a 1,000 yard season last year but is STILL disappointing Titans fans because he's not the goal-line threat he was in college. These guys were all supposed to be superstars. Just goes to show that an amazing college career doesn't necessarily translate to the pros, I guess.

6. Why is everyone always riding Tony Romo's ass because his team hasn't won a playoff game yet? They're making the playoffs, and they're a very good team. That's a lot more than you can say for them in the pre-Romo days.

7. Chad Ocho-Cinco's Wikipedia article was edited the day that he legally changed his name to reflect the changes, making him the owner of the most hilarious Wikipedia article ever, second perhaps only to Dave Littlefield, who's article reads more like a list of failures than an encyclopedia entry. Wikipedia has since changed the article back to Chad Johnson and makes note in the first paragraph of his name change. Why? It's his legal name. It's a ridiculous legal name, but it's a legal name, and Wikipedia should acknowledge it the same way that the NFL should. On the discussion board for Ocho-Cinco's article, there's actually a heated debate about it. I find that the most hilarious of all.

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