News on the Pirates-Marlins-Red Sox trade with Manny Ramirez as the centerpiece is the biggest story on ESPN right now. Word is that Manny has indeed approved a trade to Florida, which he would have to do as a 10-5 player. Other than that, the only news on this front is that the Pirates may be willing to send their former starting catcher, Ronny Paulino, who is currently playing in AAA due to not being nearly as good as Ryan Doumit to Florida as well. That could make the number of players in this trade three for the Pirates: John Grabow, Ronny Paulino and Jason Bay.
More news on this as I get it.
Status as of 1:13 PM: Conflicting reports. ESPN's Peter Gammons says that the trade is close to dead due to the Marlins asking for too much cash. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Dejan Kovacevic says that trade talks are picking up. I'm torn on who to believe here. ESPN is obviously the more reputable news source, but at the same time, Dejan is one of the best beat writers out there. He's the kind of person that knows what he's talking about when he covers his team, and if he says it, it's probably true. He's where I got the information that Ronny Paulino was involved in talks now, so that shows how much I trust his word. I guess we'll have to wait and see who's right. The long and short of it is that at 4:00 PM EST, Manny Ramirez might nt be out of Boston, but Jason Bay will almost definitely be traded to a team in the AL East. Neal Huntington is really working this thing from both sides on the Rays and Red Sox...obviously, neither team would want the other to acquire Jason Bay. He's probably got more leverage with the Rays, however, as Bay would be more valuable to them and a downgrade from Ramirez for the Sox.
Status as of 1:28 PM: Dejan now reports that the Marlins are indeed holding the deal up, but doesn't go as far as Peter Gammons in saying that it's nearly dead. He also reports that prospects have been named, but he didn't say anything about who they are. I don't think the Marlins will let the trade slip away, to be quite honest. Manny Ramirez would take them full circle into the usual Marlins story - tiny team with good, young players comes out of nowhere and starts moving up the ranks in the NL, then they trade for a few impact veterans and win the World Series. I think they're just trying to get a feel for how much they can squeeze out of the Red Sox, and see who blinks first before 4.
Status as of 1:41 PM: This is getting ridiculous. ESPN and Dejan are now reporting the the Blue Jays are inquiring about Jason Bay as well. Why? I don't know. They're not contenders this year, and Adam Lind is their top prospect and already playing left for them. Likely they're just trying to give a big "piss off!" to the rest of the division.
Status as of 1:58 PM: More reports are coming in saying that the three-way trade is basically dead, which is probably all we'll hear on the Manny Ramirez front if that's the case. However, Dejan is reporting that talks for Bay with the Rays aren't dead, like other sites report. I think the Rays will be willing to settle on Rocco Baldelli, but there's always a chance. Besides, think of the marketing slogans. Jason Bay, Tampa Bay, Rays...it's like a Dr. Seuss book in the making.
Also, just a thought, but if the Marlins are really interested in great hitting outfielders with bad attitudes, there IS a certain someone still available to them at no major cost...
Status as of 2:15 PM: Along with Dejan, Jayson Stark and Ken Rosenthal are also reporting that a Bay to the Rays deal may be in the works. In order for my life to be complete, this rhyme scheme trade has to happen. I guess the Blue Jays would work, too, but what are they honestly going to give up for Bay as far as prospects go?
Status as of 2:30 PM: Jays are out, and the Manny deal can be all but officially pronounced dead at this point. Only one rhyming destination exists for Jason Bay!
Status as of 2:42 PM: Dodgers are offering for Manny, Red Sox are listening.
Status as of 2:45 PM: Boston Globe is reporting that the three-way talk isn't dead yet, just that the Sox and Pirates are shifting their focus in case Florida doesn't want to budge.
Status as of 2:53: Jon Heyman says that the Dodgers are offering Andre Ethier for Manny Ramirez. Red Sox want Kemp. I couldn't see either happening straight up, but it's a good start. LA will have to sweeten the pot a little here. No matter what, it'll be a raw deal for the Dodgers: they'd be solving their crowded outfield by trading away a talented young outfielder for a talented old outfielder with an expensive, soon-to-expire contract. BRILLIANT! Ned Coletti at his finest.
Status as of 3:04: It's quiet, too quiet. Despite my constant updates, most of the times were due more to me not being able to keep up than the events actually happening at that time. Nothing has happened for the past 20 minutes or so. Dejan is reporting that the Pirates aren't budging on their asking price for Bay (SS Reid Brignac and either P Jeff Niemann or P Wade Davis. They're also interested in P Jeremy Hellickson, but I don't know if they're asking for him in the whole package or not.), and the Rays aren't budging on their not offering what the Pirates want. Nothing new on the Manny front. Is this the calm before the storm, or just the sign that nothing will happen?
Status as of 3:26 PM: MLB.com says Jason Bay is going to the Rays for Brignac, Nieman and two other minor leaguers. Despite being on MLB.com, this story is not officially confirmed by either team. Dejan seems to think trade talks are still actually going between the teams, and they're coming closer to an agreement.
Status as of 3:48 PM: Second MLB report saying Bay to Tampa for Reid OR Brignac and two other prospects. Still no confirmation on either report. 10 minutes to the deadline, and neither Manny nor Bay have been officially moved yet.
Status as of 3:54 PM: Sports Illustrated says the Manny three-way deal isn't dead yet. I beg to differ.
Status as of 4:00 PM: Well, that's it. The deadline cometh. This doesn't necessarily mean no trades happened, mind you, just that no trades can happen after now. There's always a chance that a deal happened before the deadline that has yet to be reported to the media, which happends pretty frequently, actually. I have to be at work at 5:00, though, so if anything happens after 4:15 or so I won't report it until later tonight.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
So, about this three-way trade thing
Ken Griffey, Jr to the White Sox

In a blockbuster move, the Chicago White Sox have acquired outfielder Ken Griffey, Jr. in exchange for Nick Masset and Danny Richar.
This deal makes plenty of sense for the White Sox. It allows them to move Nick Swisher to first base and add Griffey to the outfield. It's good for their defense in a hard-hitting but poorly fielded outfield of Swisher, Quentin and Dye. Offensively, it adds a good bat to their lineup and allows them to stop playing Paul Konerko at first and put a slugger like Swisher there instead. They've built an excellent one-year team, but after this year they're going to have to flip some players for prospects or at least younger major leaguers.
It doesn't, however, make sense for the Reds. Griffey isn't one of the best outfielders on the market at this point in his career, but certainly he could command more than a reliever and a second basemen who, if the Reds are smart at all, will only wind up as the backup to Brandon Phillips. I have to believe that this wasn't the best deal on the table for them, but of course I have no idea whether that's true or not.
Deadline Deals: AL West
Blah blah blah, Angels. This is going to be the most boring edition, because nobody is reasonably going to overtake the Angels in this division, and all of the also-rans are either young or have the players in their farm system to get young.
Angels - Obviously, they're buyers. Looking to make a playoff push in a big way, they added one of the league's better first basemen in Teixeira. They have more wins than any other team in the majors, but it's arguable how much luck had to do with that. Like the Braves, after getting Teixeira, I don't expect any more things from them before 4 PM tonight. Mostly a small-ball team, they made the right move to pick up a big bat to help hammer away at the opposing team.
A's - They want to stay competitive and chase the Angels, but they're 14 games back and Billy Beane is too smart to think that he can make a run this year. He's got a whole heap of prospects from all the dealing he did next year, so I think the A's are good to just sit back and wait on their talent to develop.
Mariners - Won't do anything.
Rangers - See above.
Deadline Deals: NL East
The NL East has been a pretty surprising division this year. It's currently a pretty open 3-way race between the Mets, Marlins and Phillies.
Mets - Could be buyers, should buy outfielders, will likely do nothing. This is a good team. They've got what they've need to make a run, and they've finally stopped overachieving. Why mess with a (finally) winning formula? The only thing they need is some outfield help, which they need pretty desperately, as they've been thin outside of Beltran even before all the injuries hit them in that area. It's certainly an OF market this year, though they're reportedly not interested in Manny Ramirez. That's a mistake in my eyes, but whatever.
Marlins - Will be buyers, already posted about how they're interested in Manny Ramirez below. Not much else to say about them.
Phillies - If they want to make a run, they should buy, but I think they know that this isn't their year. Look for them to stand pat and try to make a run at it next year instead. It's not like this team isn't talented.
Braves - The fact that they dealt Teixeira should tell you everything you need to know about their status as sellers. They're looking to get younger, and after dealing Teixeira, I don't see another big move happening for them before 4 PM tonight.
Nationals - Young team. Will do nothing. Always suck, but might be good some day.
Deadline Deals: AL East
Ah, the AL East. Formerly the dominion of the Yankees and Red Sox, with the Blue Jays occasionally popping their heads in, the former whipping boys are now contenders. The Rays are at the top of the division. Most experts say that they need to make a deal to hang on to that lead, especially with the Yankees going buy-crazy.
Yankees - The biggest dynasty in sports history has not been so great this year. Of course, this mostly has to do with injuries...lots of them. To key players. That will kill any team. They've been so injured that both of the trades they've made this season have been, at least in part, to replace injured players. First there was a trade with the Pirates for left-handed reliever Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. While Marte was probably the more important player for them in that trade, for a team that has an injured Hideki Matsui and...well...Melky Cabrera playing like he normally does, Nady is big as an outfield need as well. Today they traded Kyle Farnsworth for Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez. Farnsworth is a pretty good reliever, but not really what the Yankees need, and Pudge is exactly what they need: a catcher now that Jorge Posada is out for the year. Personally, I think it was a decent trade for both teams. Even though the Tigers are six games back, they're not OFFICIALLY out of it yet and can conceivably make a run. Since the bullpen is their biggest need, Farnsworth makes plenty of sense. Likewise for the Yankees. We all know the story on Pudge by now: awesome defense, suspect offense. Personally, I think the Yankees should have gone for a better hitting catcher, but as far as overall ability, you can't really complain about Ivan Rodriguez.
Red Sox: Although nothing is official yet, the biggest rumor is that they're shopping Manny Ramirez. Really, though, when's the last time you remember a year when Manny wasn't "leaving Boston...for real this time." They're of course going to be buyers, as they're making a playoff push. The question, however, is where do they even need help? Lugo's out, but Jed Lowry has done an adequate job of holding the fort to them. Even with two of their starters out, they still have one of the best rotations in the majors. They carry Coco Crisp, one of the best center fielders in the game, as a FOURTH OUTFIELDER. Realistically, they probably need an upgrade at catcher over Varitek, but it won't happen for two reasons: the first being that we all know nobody except Jason Varitek will start at catcher for them unless it's to catch Tim Wakefield, and it's not like Joe Mauer or Russell Martin or Brian McCann or Geovany Soto are on the market. Maybe if they blow the Pirates away they could get Ryan Doumit, but as he's a young player that's a big part of the Pirates' future plans, they probably don't want to give up what it takes for an oft-injured, mediocre defensive, awesome hitting catcher. They have a lights-out bullpen. Their biggest challenge might be actually making this team better than it is. Baseball Prospectus is reporting that a three-way trade that would send Jason Bay and John Grabow to Boston, Manny Ramirez and a prospect with cash to the Marlins, and Jeremy Hermida and three prospects (two from Florida, one from Boston) to Pittsburgh has been reported to Bud Selig's office. I don't see a lot of likelihood in this happening, especially since specific players haven't been named yet. Not only that, it seems like the Red Sox would really be getting worked over here. I don't honestly see the point in them getting rid of Manny Ramirez and settling for Jason Bay (who's great, but no Manny) and a not very good left-handed middle reliever instead. Throw in the fact that they'd also be giving up two prospects overall and cash, and I really don't see their motivation here from the standpoint of, you know, having the best players possible on your team. It would be a pretty awesome deal for the other teams involved, though.
Rays: This is hard to predict. They seem content to just stand pat and accept that even if they don't make it this year, they have one of the youngest and best teams in baseball with a stacked farm system and can make runs for years to come. On the other hand, it's confirmed that they're in talks with Pittsburgh for Jason Bay. Both sides are reporting that a deal isn't imminent, but they're working towards one. That likely means they'll go for Adam Dunn instead. Neil Huntington is looking for some real quality for Jason Bay, as opposed to the quantity he got for Nady and Marte. Rumored targets from the Pirates are Reid Brignac and Jeremy Hellickson, along with speculation about the general term "top pitching prospects." I don't think the Rays will be willing to give up a lot for Bay, seeing as how the organization has built itself up almost entirely from within. However, Adam Dunn seems like a great target for them. He'll likely come cheaper, and he's a better hitter overall than Bay is. Whereas Pittsburgh is in a position where they don't HAVE to deal Bay - there's still another whole year on his contract, leaving the winter meetings and next year's trade deadline - the Reds are in a position where they have to either deal Dunn, re-sign him, or cut him outright. The last one would obviously be the worst option for them. The only thing I would say is holding the Rays back from targeting Dunn outright is that they need outfielders, not a DH...Dunn would make a great DH for them, but he's not exactly known for stellar outfield play. The Rays are looking for both.
Blue Jays - This year's also-rans. They were projected in the beginning of the season to be mildly competitive, but not playoff contenders. They were supposed to keep things interesting and hover a little above .500. They've hovered around .500, but they've done nothing else at all. If they make any trades this year, look for them to be sellers, but with Big Hurt already gone. AJ Burnett is a good trading chip, but with his injury history he won't get what he commands when healthy.
Orioles - Playing more of the role that the Blue Jays were supposed to play, this is one of those young teams that, despite being full of players you've never heard of, appears to have a future. They've been stocking their farm system for a loooong time now, but it doesn't look like they'll be making any trades this time. They play the waiting game now and wait for some of their prospects to get the call.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
RANDOM PREDICTION TIME #2
The Angels will not represent the American League in the World Series. Mark Teixeira or no Mark Teixeira.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Deadline Deals: NL West
Deadline Deals is a column I'll be writing talking about, obviously, trades near the MLB trading deadline. Whenever a major deal goes down, I'll focus on that division: I'll discuss what trades have already been made and then speculate on further trade possibilities in the division.
Oh boy. The NL West is...well, it's a roller coaster to be sure. This year's version of last year's NL Central, this division is wide open. Anybody that plays here could be either a buyer or a seller, because they're all in the race, but they're also all really bad teams.
Diamondbacks - I'd expect the D-Backs to be buyers here. Save Randy Johnson, they don't have any old players and are overall a pretty young team. They don't need much to hang on to the division this year, and with a team this young, I say they take a gamble and add some veterans to see what kind of run they can make. I have heard it said that they won't trade Conor Jackson under any circumstances, even for Mark Teixeira, which seems weird until you realize that he's really matured as a hitte rlately and might have more power upside than anyone thought.
Dodgers - They're buyers. They're always buyers. They just traded for Casey Blake, if that tells you anything. This has got to be the worst run organization in the major leagues. They have heaps of young talent both in the majors and in the minors, but they don't play because they're sitting behind garbage veterans like Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones (seriously, what happened to him?) and Casey Blake. I would normally be incensed that they tried to put Nomar back at SS, but they didn't really have any other options, so there's not much they can do. It's not that the Dodgers shouldn't be buyers - as I said, the division is wide open and they're not out of it yet. It's just that they never have any sort of contingency plan.
Rockies - Even though they still have a shot and they're red hot right now, all sources report that the Rockies are sellers this year. For a team that lost the World Series last year, that's not an ideal situation. At the same time, it's not a bad idea. They're a young team with plenty of talent, but at the same time, they need a long-term first basemen now that Todd Helton's days as an elite hitter appear to be over. They need pitching like nothing else, and they don't have much depth in the minor leagues. They probably won't give up anything major, although in theory they're shopping Matt Holliday, and it's a really bad time for Todd Helton to be on the DL. I imagine they'd have to be absolutely blown away to give up a guy like Holliday, especially with another year on his contract. In theory, the Rockies are sellers, but in practice, they probably won't make a move at all and will have to have a good draft next year.
Giants - What a trainwreck. The Giants are awful, and the front office is a big reason why. Brian Sabean's strategy of building purely through free agency and trades is too old school to work in today's MLB. I'm actually surprised it ever worked. Especially with no Barry Bonds, this team won't go anywhere. When your GM freely admits that he doesn't put much stock into the draft or into young prospects, you'd better hope the owner is willing to shell out an insane amount of money for veteran talent. The Giants are not a team that is willing to do that, and they've been paying the price for the good part of this century.
Padres - I feel like Peter would be more qualified to write up the report for this team, but I'll do my best. The Padres are sellers this year, but the problem is that they don't have much to sell. I'm still amazed that they ripped the Atros off for Randy Wolf, but this is a team that has a lot of old players. Not veterans, mind you, old players. It's not really their fault, they're just in the limbo between being a former playoff contender and rebuilding to contend for the future. The Padres are stacked with players that were at one time great, but are on their way out and everyone knows it. Players like Greg Maddux and Brian Giles won't attract much on the market. What's worse? A lot of their old players are on the DL. Tad Iguchi, Brett Tomko, Mark Prior and Michael Barrett probably wouldn't get a big haul normally, but on the DL, they're worthless all together. The silver lining for the friars is that the players that aren't old all have really bright futures. Players like Chase Headley, Khalil Greene and Kevin Kouzmanoff haven't come into their own yet, but you can tell they'll be something special.
Coming tomorrow: AL East
Monday, July 28, 2008
Oh The Anticipation!
If most of our readers do not know I am a huge hockey fan, which is odd considering no one else in my family shares this passion. In fact, before I was born my father used to make fun of hockey, but I guess his only son has changed his tune on that one. Additionally, hockey was the second "real" word I ever said when I was a child.
Up until I was nine I lived in the Chicago area and grew up with the Chicago Blackhawks. I remember seeing my first game in the old Chicago Stadium and spending my free time learning about the history of the team. Then when I was almost 10 I moved to Indianapolis, a place where no one apparently knows what hockey is, nor do they care. Honestly this is my only criticism of a place that I believe is the most underrated pro sports city in the nation.
I digress, for a huge Hawks fan like me, when the NHL announced that The Winter Classic would be held at Wrigley Field and the hated Detroit Red Wings would be the opponent I knew that this is something I could not miss. Needless to say I will be spending my first day of 2009 in the friendly confines of Wrigley watching my favorite team take on their original six rivals.
One additional thing to add that I have recently heard about is that both teams will follow in the tradition of wearing throwbacks. This time though both teams will wear their 1930's era jerseys.
Also I am aware that these tickets will cost a lot of money, but I'm willing to sell my first born son. Any takers?
Boom...outta here.
New features.
We've added a couple of new features to the blog. Nothing major, and they're pretty much only to generate traffic, because we crave attention.
Firstly, you can now subscribe to our RSS feed by clicking on the feed link on the left panel above the poll. For most of our readers, this probably doesn't matter, but it's always nice to provide a service that even a few readers might use.
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The NL West edition of Deadline Deals will be up either tonight or tomorrow.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Deadline Deals: AL Central
Deadline Deals is a column I'll be writing talking about, obviously, trades near the MLB trading deadline. Whenever a major deal goes down, I'll focus on that division: I'll discuss what trades have already been made and then speculate on further trade possibilities in the division.
Well, as you all know by now, Casey Blake has been traded to the Dodgers. That means that I'm due to write a new installment of Deadline Deals, this time for the AL Central. Admittedly, I should probably have done this yesterday or when Sabathia was traded, and I still have an NL West post to write, but I just wrote two HUGE posts in two consecutive days and I didn't have the time to write two more. But today, I do, so here we go.
We'll start out with the Indians, since they're the only ones in this division that have actually made a deal thus far.
Cleveland Indians - Obviously, they've been and will continue to be a seller. You just don't get rid of CC Sabathia if you think you can make a run at your division. With the Blake trade on top of that, their intention has become clear: they want to get rid of older players to stockpile prospects, and they want to do it fast. The Sabathia deal was probably the most significant move they'll make this year, and Casey Blake's trade was an obvious move for them. Time will tell whether they made the right decisions, but they have good leadership and were way out of contention this year, so they made the right call to not try to win with a losing team. I already wrote a post detailing my opinion on the Casey Blake trade, and the Sabathia trade was discussed in the NL Central edition of Deadline Deals, so there's not much else to say about the Indians here.
White Sox - They're in a position where they could probably just stand pat and still win their division, but I'd look for the Sox to make a couple minor moves for the playoff push. They're in dire need of a good pitcher beyond Buehrle, but with all the big-name arms off the market, anything they acquire will probably just be a minor upgrade. They could use an upgrade over Juan Uribe at 2B, and they might go out and get one, but no matter what they do I don't look for them to go that deep into the playoffs. This is a team that desperately needs to get younger soon to stay competitive, and in that regard maybe getting rid of that huge prospect haul in exchange for Nick Swisher was a mistake, but it was still the right move being that they're in contention and have an outfield that's murdering the ball, especially with Carlos Quentin having a stellar year. Regardless, this isn't the year that they'll be trading for prospects, so put that thought to be.
Tigers - The biggest disappointment of this year, the Tigers have two options: they can stand pat and hope to improve next year, or they can trade away veterans for younger players. Considering the age of the team, the latter is probably the better option. But with what the Tigers have been doing lately up until this year, that's going to be an unpopular option. The club is likely to opt for the former, just because they have been so previously successful with this group of players. Assuming their record is similar next year, though, I think the front office is smart enough to see that this team already made the best run they're going to make. It's not that they're a bad team, it's just that if you plan to build a team completely with veterans like the Tigers have, you better have Yankees or Red Sox money to get the best veterans possible. Every other club needs at least a few young players that they can point to as future stars.
Royals - Out of contention this year like they have been for a long time running, the Royals are under a pretty new front-office regime that includes a GM that was a rabid fan of the team growing up. That can go either way. They've got a solid group of young starting pitchers, and that's a good core to build from, but they don't have any position players with big upside outside of Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. That's where they're going to have to get better, which I'm sure the front office is well aware of. What they need to do this trading season is clear out their veterans for position prospects. The problem with that is that they don't have many talented veterans. Mark Teahen was a high draft pick a long time ago that was supposed to have major upside, but he's never really lived up to expectations, becoming a solid but unspectacular major leaguer. With such a glut of outfield talent on the market right now, no team in their right mind would bite on Teahen even if the Royals offered him up.
Twins - They could be either a buyer or a seller this deadline. On the one hand, they're only 2.5 games back from the White Sox at this point. On the other hand, this has been a rebuilding year from the start for them, what with the Johan Santana trade and all, and I doubt they'd be willing to sacrifice that for a run that would probably end up unsuccessful. If I had to guess, I'd say they'll either make no moves or make some very minor moves for prospects. Don't expect them to make a playoff push this year...they gave up on the year before it even started.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Casey Blake (and cash!) traded to Dodgers for prospects, terms of Pirates-Yankees deal changed.

Ned Colletti has just become the second GM this season to prove me right about predicting a bad trade, as he just traded for Casey Blake and cash despite having a third-base prospect on the major league roster with a huge ceiling.
The terms of the trade are: Casey Blake and cash to the Dodgers for 22 year old high-A prospect Carlos Santana and 23 year old AAA prospect Jonathan Meloan. These guys are both middle-of-the-road prospects.
Casey Blake, on the other hand, is 35 years old and not terribly good at baseball. Colletti likes him because "he's a gamer." Is it me, or does everybody except the Dodger organization realize that Andy LaRoche is one of the best third base prospects in the game at the moment and that maybe benching him in favor of 35 year old baseball players that LaRoche is already at least as good as isn't the best way to harness his huge potential? Maybe the link I gave to Andy's major league numbers isn't doing much to convince you that he is the long-term solution to 3B for the Dodgers. That probably has something to do with the fact that in two years, he only has 152 major league at-bats, mostly coming in cold as a pinch-hitter. Here, look at his minor league numbers for an idea of what he can do when he plays every day.
What did the Dodgers give up, exactly?
Jonathan Meloan is a 24 year old AAA pitcher. He starts in the minors, but is projected to be a reliever in the majors. He strikes out a good number of batters, but he has some control issues as well, as he walks more than his share of batters. He doesn't give up the long ball too often, so that's a plus, and with a .367 BABIP in the minors, at least a chunk of his issues are with bad defenses behind him. He mixes an average change and an average curve with a 92 MPH fastball, a hard breaking slider and a hard breaking sinker. Will he turn out? At this point it's hard to tell. He's not a sure thing, but he has a brighter future than Casey Blake.
Carlos Santana is a 21 year old catcher that's been bounced around several of the lower-level minors. The reason for this isn't his hitting so much as the Dodgers originally converted him from catcher to 3B because of defensive questions, but later changed their mind because the organization is stacked with corner infield prospects. He has some decent on-base numbers and walks a good bit, which is usually all a team asks for from a catcher offensively. In the lowest levels he hit for a lot of extra bases, though not many home runs. That power seems to have decreased against the better pitching in higher levels, though. Scouts say he has a great arm and is surprisingly agile, but his defense is still a big question mark. He's been compared to Russell Martin, but with less speed. Again, not a sure thing, but a brighter future than Blake.
In other trade news, the deal between the Yankees and Pirates of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte for minor leaguers has changed, meaning I spent hours scouting Phil Coke and George Kontos last night for nothing. The trade still involves Jose Tabata and Ross Ohlendorf, but Phil Coke and George Kontos have been replaced in the deal with Daniel McCutchen and Jeff Karstens.
This may or may not improve the trade, depending on how many years are involved in Neal Huntington's building plan. (As he said: with a system this void, we're not talking about rebuilding; we're talking about building.) Considering that both of these prospects are older than Kontos but with higher ceilings than Coke, if I had to take a guess I'd say that Huntington is aiming to have a contender in 2-3 years rather than 3-5 years. I'll base my assessment of the trade on that assumption rather than the assumption that Huntington doesn't have any idea what he's doing, both because that would be depressing and because there's no reason to believe the latter.
Both of the new prospects in this deal are 25 year old AAA pitchers. They both look like they have higher ceilings than Coke, and McCutchen looks like he has about the same potential as Kontos, except he'll arrive in the majors sooner due to his age.
Scouts say McCutchen is ready to be called up to the majors, and the stats agree that he's worth a shot in the back of the rotation to get some time in against major league batters. He's split time between AA and AAA this year and had success in both leagues. He had 52 Ks with 18 walks in 53 IP in AA, and in AAA he has 58 Ks and 11 walks in 70.1 IP. The only reservation Pittsburgh should have with calling him up immediately is that he's given up 10 homers in his time in AAA, but considering that right now their #5 spot is filled with a committee of John Van Benschoten and Yoslan Herrera, both of whom are older than McCutchen, both of whom have gotten shelled in every start this year, and both of whom don't project to have any sort of future in the majors, I think they can overlook those homers in the name of getting McCutchen ready to pitch for them for the next few years. (UPDATE: Since McCutchen doesn't have to join the 40-man roster yet, the Pirates are indicating that it will be Karstens that joins the rotation, while Ohlendorf joining later.) McCutchen has a 1.19 WHIP and 3.58 ERA in AAA so far, and with a 3.71 DICE, that ERA is probably legit. He's thrown two complete-game shutouts at AAA, an encouraging sign. He throws a 92 MPH fastball, a curve and a splitter, all of which are described as "solid but unspectacular" among scouts. Since the start of this year, he's been working on a changeup, which is the reason for his lower-than-usual K rate at AA to start the season. I can't find any information on how well his changeup is coming along, but if the Yankees felt comfortable enough to advance him to AAA, I'm assuming it's doing at least enough to keep batters honest. Scouts say he has masterful control of the strike zone, which his low walk rate indicates. In 2006, he was suspended for 50 games due to steroid use, but he hasn't failed a test since then, meaning he's either clean now or at least can hide it better. (EDIT: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is reporting that it wasn't steroids, but a drug for ADD which he is now cleared to use by MLB.)
Jeff Karstens has similar stats to McCutchen, but isn't considered major league ready by scouts yet because he's working on developing pitches and he was a converted reliever. A sinker-baller and a control artist, he rarely walks a batter and does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and in the park. He strikes out a reasonable number of batters, more than most sinkerballers in fact, but isn't a dynamo in that regard. He's had moderate success with the Yankees in relief as a September call-up, and will likely play that role in Pittsburgh as well. He still probably needs a year of seasoning before he's ready to be a full-time starter. In 68.2 IP at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he's struck out 55 batters while walking only 15, has a WHIP of 1.18 and an ERA of 3.80, and has given up 8 homers. He has a 3.57 DICE, but that's not as reliable a metric with sinkerballers since their main goal is to induce grounders with strikeouts being secondary. Still an encouraging sign, but we should really be looking at his 42% GB rate. That's below average for a pitcher in his vein, but his increased strikeout total should help offset that.
The changes made to this trade took a bit of upside away in Kontos, but it added some needed depth to the Pirate's organization at pitcher and still left a high-upside outfielder and a middle-high upside pitcher in the mix. I'd call it an improvement, but only a slight one.
Friday, July 25, 2008
Nady, Marte traded to Yankees pending physical.
In the early innings of tonight's Pirates/Padres game, Damaso Marte was seen hugging Pirate teammates in the dugout and Xavier Nady was pulled from the game after the first inning. The Pirates PR department has since confirmed that the Pirates have made a trade "pending physical" for Nady and Marte. More info on this trade as it comes, look for this space to update. If all the rumors I've heard about Neal Huntington's asking prices are true, the Pirates just made a significant step in stocking their farm system.
UPDATE: The Pirates put all of their eggs in one basket with this trade. The buyers in the deal are the New York Yankees. The results are in, and in return for one of the best outfielders on the market and one of the best lefty relievers on the market, the Pirates got Phil Coke, Ross Ohlendorf, George Kantos and Jose Tabata.
This...is not really a good trade for the Pirates. It's not a terrible one, but it's not the kind of prospect haul they should have got for two major league players who were highly sought after on the market. The rub on it is this:
Ross Ohlendorf - was once considered a top prospect for the Yankees, is now 25 and has yet to show any kind of talent that would make him better than a mop-up man. Struck out a decent amount of batters in the lower levels of the minors, but that talent hasn't carried to the majors. Has a minor league career WHIP of 1.36, currently has a AAA WHIP of 1.48. Had a very brief stint in the Yankee bullpen, sucked, was sent back down. At his age, what you see is likely what you get. He's probably nothing more than a body to put in the major league bullpen. He's an improvement to the Pirates pitching depth in the minors, and in situations like this season where they have a bunch of starting pitching injuries in the rotation and have to keep trotting out horrible pitchers like Yoslan Herrera and John Van Benchoten he'll come in handy, but I don't expect lofty things from him.
Phil Coke - A 26 year old AA pitcher. He's a sinkerballer, and he has some pretty good success keeping balls on the ground. (51% GB rate in AA, and a mindblowing 70% clip in A ball.) He has awful AAA numbers, but to be fair he's only pitched 3 innings of work there. And that's what worries me about him. He shows a little bit of promise as either a future #5 or a good reliever, but he's 26 and hasn't had any success past AA ball, so that's very telling. Maybe there's time for him to pan out, especially since strikeouts aren't as big of a deal with sinkerballers. There's a lot of videos of him on YouTube, but they're mostly only showing one pitch. He has some good bite on his sinker, but how much can you really scout a guy by watching one pitch at a time from scattered games? He has a WHIP of 1.23 in AA and doesn't walk a whole lot of batters. That's mildly encouraging because his WHIP will likely go down as he advances with better defenses behind him...he sure had some ugly WHIPs in the lower levels. If he can keep up with the good control and ground balls, he might end up being a decent back of the rotation starter, but right now he's just an aging, middling prospect. He shared my birthday, and I wish him success for that if for no other reason. Yankee fans seem to like him, for what that's worth. We'll have to wait and see.
George Kontos - You guessed it, another pitcher. But this one's only 23 years old. Has a lot more upside than the rest of the pitchers, but you have to take more than a passing glance at the numbers to know that, because at first glance they don't look very good. The more I learn about this guy, though, the more I like him. He had a successful college career at Northwestern, and he's been a strikeout machine at every level so far. He doesn't walk a whole lot of batters, but he needs to work on giving up less homers. At only 23, there's plenty of time for him to iron that out. Like Coke, he has a good ground ball percentage at 40%. Also like Coke, there's a bunch of one-pitch videos of him on YouTube. Same user, too. Must be a Yankee fan. When I first looked at his high WHIP and low ERA I though "uh-oh, false positive," but after running his numbers through every defense-independent ERA formula I know, his numbers come out pretty much exactly where his ERA is right now, meaning his 3.77 ERA at AA is probably in line with what you can expect from him. He has a .302 BABIP in AA, which is just about normal, so maybe his WHIP is what it is, but like I said, he's only 23 and has plenty of time to get his few, minor issues worked out. It's good to see that his only bad season was mostly due to an astronomical .388 BABIP, though. That's a sign that he has good command of the strike zone. I don't look for this guy to be an ace, but I definitely think he could make the cut as a #3 guy, which is not bad for someone who was drafted late in the 5th round and traded. He might even surprise me and exceed expectations...I have some pretty high hopes for this guy.
Jose Tabata: This is the main part of the deal for the Pirates, and it's quite literally impossible to tell how it will work out for them. He's been ranked anywhere from #1 to #4 on top prospect lists for the Yankee system. His minor league numbers are atrocious, aside from his OBP. On the other side of that coin, going by numbers alone on this guy would be unfair, because he's only 19 years old. Usually when somebody that young has the discipline to walk a good deal and also hits hard line drives, it means they'll develop into a real power talent that, if not a home run hitter, will at least hit for a heap of extra bases. Scouts go absolutely nuts over him from all the reports I've read, which all use the term "special talent" at least thrice. He's 19 and he's already in AA, and going by average and OBP, that's right about where he belongs. He has a hamstring injury and is out for the rest of the season, but the Pirates already knew that. (UPDATE: Pirates say he'll be playing in the minors in a few weeks.) He's got speed, but he doesn't know how to use it to his fullest advantage on the basepaths yet. He steals a lot of bases, but he gets caught a lot to for around a 75% success rate. You have to assume at his age he'll learn to be more selective, though. The bottom line is, this guy makes or breaks the trade. If Tabata and one of the pitchers pan out, the Pirates got a good deal. If not...they got fleeced. There's videos of this guy on YouTube that last more than 6 seconds, as well, and what I can tell you from watching those ABs is this: he's a patient hitter who works the count, he makes the pitcher throw a lot of pitches, he's not afraid to walk if he doesn't get anything to hit, he hits hard liners, and he's fast. For a kid this young, that's a pretty good resume. Really, that's a pretty good resume for anyone. If he develops HR power, he looks like a 5-tool player. Or at least a 4-tool one, since I can't find anything of him fielding. Initially I was pessimistic that this guy would pan out, but seeing his plate patience and considering his age, I think he can only get better from here.
Opinions of this trade range from "the Pirates got robbed" to "a good, even trade." The BBTN crew thinks the Pirates got fleeced here, but they always think that when major leaguers are dealt for prospects, regardless of the talent of those involved. I'm pretty sure if Miguel Tejada got traded to the Reds tomorrow for Jay Bruce straight up, BBTN would say that the Reds got a great deal. Other than BBTN, it's mostly Yankee fans that think the Pirates got screwed, but they're jackoffs anyway, and they see themselves being able to make a run now. Most neutral sources like Scout.com, Baseball Prospectus and Rotowire see this as an even trade.
The fist pump heard 'round the world: a stream of consciousness post about the Mets
David Wright is pretty pumped that the Mets are back in first place -- alone. And so am I. (AP photo)
Yesterday the New York Mets took over sole possession of first place in the NL East for the first time since they were 10-6 on April 19. Since then there has been criticism from inside and outside the clubhouse and about three months of managerial turmoil that finally ended in just about the worst way possible. There's been a four-game sweep by the worst team in baseball. But more recently, there's been a ten-game winning streak, scrumtrulescent pitching -- during the streak, they had four shutouts in a six-game span -- and a new attitude about the Mets. You see, they actually appear to care.
I hate to get on Willie Randolph's case. He's been gone for quite a while now, his firing was handled in an absolutely atrocious fashion, and I think he's a good man who didn't deserve the treatment he got. But it is indisputable -- except by the idiots at ESPN -- that the Mets' resurgence is almost exclusively due to the fact that he is no longer the manager, and a big part of that is the team's emotion.
Randolph was possibly the most stoic manager not named Joe Torre in the history of baseball. The most emotion he seemed willing to show was a mild smile and clapping after a particularly important home run. It was like having someone's awkwardly strict father managing the team, and it was far from what this particular group of players needed. They need a person like Jerry Manuel, who jokingly threatens to "cut" players who show him up because he's "a gangster." Someone who will let them grow out facial hair and play music in the dugout, and take part in the team's elaborate system of handshakes. Someone who's not afraid to get ejected from a game to defend his players.
Which brings us to the Mets-Phillies series this week. The Mets were three outs away from winning the first game of the series, but had possibly the worst bullpen meltdown I've ever seen, and ended up losing the game. The Mets under Willie Randolph probably would have turned that loss into a sweep, and about a five-game losing streak. The Mets under Willie Randolph would have cracked. Instead, they bounced back with extreme prejudice, beating the Phillies in the last two games of the series, showing the heart and intensity for which fans have been desperate for a long time.
There were two big things I saw in the series that I loved, things I've wanted to see for a long time. The first was Jose Reyes' reaction after hitting a home run on Wednesday night to put the Mets ahead. The previous night, after hitting an RBI double, Jimmy Rollins did this. Okay, whatever, he can do what he wants to celebrate. But he got retribution: after his go-ahead homer, Reyes looked straight at Rollins while rounding first and did this. I like that because it's vintage Reyes. He celebrates. He's a happy guy, and he plays better when he shows his emotion. It doesn't get out of control most of the time, and it amplifies his talent (unlike some people). And, perhaps my favorite part: it was a huge "screw you" to Jimmy Rollins and his minions, and a message that the Mets will not let slights go unpunished.
Of course, because it was Reyes, ESPN decided that he was showing up the Phillies and that he should be executed on site. Not really, but Skip "Why So Serious?" Bayless did have a litter of kittens on the "First and 10" set. And Rollins' almost identical gesture was perfectly fine, and Rollins was defended on the same show today for showing up an hour before gametime on Thursday, which led to him being benched (though Eric Bruntlett was the only Phillie who could hit worth a damn against Ollie Perez, so it ended up not mattering). For me, this raises a host of questions about why Rollins gets a free pass where Reyes gets annhilated, but that's a whole other story. (Spoiler: it's because ESPN is in the Phillies' pants and because Steve Phillips hates the Mets.)
It was also a little curious that evidently the Phillies themselves didn't like the celebration. It rubbed them the wrong way, apparently. Beside the fact that Rollins' nearly identical celebration went by without incident, I'll offer the same advice to the Phillies that I offer whenever someone gets sore with Manny Ramirez or Joba Chamberlain, and that I'd have given to the Mets Tuesday night. If you don't like the celebration, don't give them anything to celebrate. If you don't want Reyes to celebrate a home run, get him out. If you don't like celebrations after strikeouts, get a hit. Do something about it yourself or shut up.
Anyway, the other thing I enjoyed from the series happened in the eighth inning on Thursday. In the top of the inning, Perez had to leave with two outs, the game tied, and the bases loaded after throwing a freaking gem. Aaron Heilman -- who spent April, May, and most of June weathering demands from fans that the Mets "trade his sorry ass" -- entered the game and induced a fly ball out almost immediately. Inning over.
In the bottom of the inning, pinch hitter extraordinaire Robinson Cancel led off with a single. The aforementioned Reyes bunted Cancel to second, and the presently inept Endy Chavez lined out softly to the pitcher. (Props to Cancel, by the way, for having the poise to not get doubled off second base. He wasn't leaning, and made it back to the base safely to keep the inning going strong.) Then, for some reason, David Wright was intentionally walked to get to the blistering hot -- and back from the dead -- Carlos Delgado. Delgado sliced a double into the left field corner, Cancel and Wright scored, and the Mets were on their way to first place.
But the best part of the whole sequence was the end. After he slid into home plate, Wright popped back up and delivered the biggest fist pump I have ever seen. It's at the end of this video clip, which I have watched literally at least twelve times, and three since starting this post.
The reason why I like seeing this from Reyes and Wright is because, like I said above, it shows that they care. They have become passionately re-invested in this season, much like almost all Mets fans. Back in June, when they couldn't even get to the .500 mark, I'd basically decided that I wasn't paying attention to them anymore because they were just pissing me off. They were playing dead. They didn't care, so why should I? Now they do. The competitive edge is back. When I saw Wright's fist pump, it reminded me of the dreams we all have in which we're playing for our favorite teams (like Wright is), and we score winning runs and touchdowns and goals. It reminded me of the feeling I get when I make a cool play in an ultimate frisbee game, and I react like he did.
The Mets are playing loose, they're enjoying themselves, and they're coming for that ass. They're finally playing baseball the way they should have been all along. They care. And now, I do too.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
My favorite game ever, four years later
Jason Varitek lived out the fantasies of approximately 90% of baseball fans exactly four years ago today. (Boston Globe Staff Photo/ Barry Chin)
Today was the 25th anniversary of the infamous "pine tar game," in which George Brett went Milton Bradley on the umpiring crew after being called out for hitting a home run with too much tar on his bat. The video of his rage has been played over and over again today, but in my eyes it's definitely not the most important anniversary that's come up today.
I am a Red Sox fan. Because of that (and the fact that I wasn't alive in 1986), the best baseball year of my life was 2004. That was the year The Curse of the Bambino was broken, and the year that the "hammer-nail" rivalry between the Sox and the Yankees finally went the way of the nail. It was the first time in my life that a team that I actually liked won the World Series, rather than (if I was lucky) a team I tolerated.
But people sometimes sort of forget that the Red Sox of 2004 were not the Red Sox of 2007. They were not the best team in the major leagues in the regular season, and for much of the season they weren't even very good. On this date in 2004, the Red Sox were 53-44, and 8.5 games behind the Jankees. They were going into the second game of an important series with their hated rivals, and had already lost the first game. I had predicted to my dad going in that I had a feeling something big, something important, was going to happen in the series. I turned out to be right.
In the third inning, the mostly inept Bronson Arroyo -- then pitching for the Red Sox -- hit Alex Rodriguez with a pitch. A-Rod, desperate to show that he was A True Yankee, yelled some stuff at Arroyo as he started to amble to first. Captain Varitek told him to hurry up. Mr. April took exception and yelled something at Tek. So Tek punched him in the face.
A brawl ensued, and people were ejected and suspended and whatnot, but none of that really mattered. A message had been delivered, and it would continue to be delivered.
The game went on, and the Red Sox were down two runs going into the bottom of the ninth. Mariano Rivera entered the game to close once again. But the Sox would have none of it. Nomar Garciaparra -- or, as I referred to him at the time, "NOMAAAAHHHHHHH!" -- doubled. Trot Nixon flied out. Kevin Millar hit an RBI single. Then Bill Mueller swung so hard he almost fell over, the ball landed in the dugout, and the Red Sox were reborn.
This game wasn't significant because it brought the Red Sox a little closer to the Yankees, since they ended up not winning the division in the end. In and of itself, it wasn't that big of a deal. But because of what happened later, it was.
That game woke the team up, and brought out its fighter's instinct (no pun intended). It showed the world -- and themselves -- that they weren't afraid of the Evil Empire. It shook everyone up.
That game, and what it represented, would come up in October, when Boston once again had to wake up and fight after finding themselves down 3-0 in the ALCS, and behind in the ninth inning against the Yankees and Mariano Rivera again. That comeback is remembered, but the events of July 24, 2004, are often overlooked. In my eyes, though, Bill Mueller swinging out of his shoes was just as important as Dave Roberts' steal.
Well, maybe not. But it was the best regular season game I've ever seen, and probably the most important one, too.
There's Humor in Them Headlines
Caleb Campbell just got screwed.
I hate to play into the four-letter network's hands and repeatedly discuss football in the offseason, but I feel that this is a big, important story that goes beyond just football.
Caleb Campbell, for those of you who don't know, is a linebacker from West Point (or: Army) who got drafted to the NFL by the Detroit Lions. Before, during, and after the draft, Campbell and the NFL were both told that Caleb Campbell would be able to play in the NFL due to something known as the Alternative Service Option. The rule reads as follows:
"Cadets accepted into the program will owe two years of active service in the Army, during which time they will be allowed to play their sport in the player-development systems of their respective organizations and be assigned to recruiting stations. If they remain in professional sports following those two years, they will be provided the option of buying out the remaining three years of their active-duty commitment in exchange for six years of reserve time."
The understanding was that Campbell was going to be able to play football in the NFL and serve out his duty as a military recruiter. The Army believed it would be a powerful recruiting strategy, and they were probably right. Campbell had said that he "looked forward to being the poster child for the ASO."
Well, he won't be. The Army has recently reviewed the policy and decided that it would no longer apply, meaning that Campbell will not get to play in the NFL and will instead be sent to combat duty. This would all be a moot point if Campbell had gotten cut by the Lions. The Army didn't even give the Lions that chance.
My problem with this - and I have a big problem with it - is not that the rule no longer applies. If the Army wants you to serve in combat with no exceptions, that's not my issue. There's no draft, so all participants in the US Army are voluntary ones. If you don't go in expecting to be sent to combat, you got played by a recruiter, and if you get played by a recruiter in a time of war, you're not all that smart.
My problem here is that Caleb Campbell went in knowing that he would probably see combat, and he STILL got played. The Army going back on their word here screws over Campbell, it screws over the Lions, and it could have screwed over any team in the NFL. If the Army wants to change their policy, that's fine, but personally I think that there should have been some sort of "grandfather rule" that would honor the Army's commitment to players - no - human beings who have already been told that they would be allowed to serve as a recruiter while playing a professional sport. I'm not going to argue that football is more important that combat duty in the Army. My issue is that the Army essentially for a full year said to Caleb Campbell "you can play football. If a team in the NFL says you can play football, you can serve as a recruiter for us and play football." And then when a team actively showed interest and Campbell got ready for camp, was issued a helmet and uniform by the Detroit Lions and was ready to compete for a contract in the NFL, the Army said "just kidding."
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Maybe Ed Wade deserves to be chokeslammed.
The big news today is that Ed Wade, GM of the Houston Astros, traded away the organization's #6 prospect, Chad Reineke for Randy Wolf. I hate to say I told you so, Astros fans, but like I said, Ed Wade doesn't believe in prospects as anything more than a way to get veteran players, and he'll behave like a team that's in contention at every trading deadline regardless of where his team actually stands. In this case: 12 games back from the division, 11 from the wild card. This says all you need to know about the Astros organization in that:
1. Their #6 prospect is (was) a 26 year old pitcher that has a 4.41 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while giving up 15 homers in AAA ball.
2. They traded said "prospect" for Randy Wolf, a 31 year old pitcher who has a 4.72 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP while giving up 14 homers in the big leagues and has an established history of being below average.
This is a bad trade. Scratch that, this is a TERRIBLE trade. The Astros aren't in contention, and their two top prospects are already on the major league roster. They NEED some minor league talent, especially as old as thier team is. What's worse than that? Even if the Astros were in contention, this would still be a bad trade, as it's been well noted by just about everyone that Randy Wolf, aside from being a #5 starter in the first place, has pitched very poorly outside of the very pitcher-friendly confines of PETCO Park. Fantasy players with Wolf on your team, take note: he's garbage for the rest of this year.
I think this trade deserves the "epic fail" tag.
Astros fans, I feel your pain. I sat through six years of Dave Littlefield making trades like this every single year before he was fired. Don't worry, though...at least Ed Wade has never been openly laughed at at a Rule 5 draft. At least Ed Wade didn't turn down TWO offers for Ryan Howard in exchange for sub-par pitching in the form of Kris Benson one year and Kip Wells the next (although he did make those offers, so there's that.) At least his best player acquisition didn't come accidentally. At least Ed Wade never traded Chris Young for Matt Herges or Aramis Ramirez for Bobby Hill. At least Ed Wade has never passed up on B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Prince Fielder, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Khalil Greene, Jeff Francoeur and others to draft Bryan freakin' Bullington, who he lated said would be "a good #3 or #4 starter" with the first overall pick of the draft. At least he never passed over Matt Wieters (if you haven't heard of him, you will...trust me.) for Daniel Moskos, a relief pitcher. Ed Wade is a bad GM, but he's not THAT bad. Yet.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Wherein John Maine ruins my weekend: with pictures!
Yeah, I met David Wright. Sort of. But I came closer than you did, so shut up.
The Mets were in Cincinnati this weekend, so I was able to convince my family to take a day trip down to see them. It wasn't a hard sell, considering we're all baseball fans and the Mets were on a ten-game winning streak.
We left pretty early and were able to get to Great American Ball Park in time for batting practice, which was the plan. My brother Josh and I snuck into the ground-level seats to get closer to the players, and roamed around for about an hour taking pictures and gawking. We got to see David Wright take infield and sign autographs from about three feet away. We watched Johan Santana and Oliver Perez playing catch, then mugging for the fans. We watched Jose Reyes half-assing infield (which he should really take more seriously). We watched Ramon Castro feeling up his teammates and coaches. Etc., etc., etc.
There was actually a game as well, but that didn't go nearly as well, since John Maine gave up four runs in an inning and the Mets couldn't get a clutch hit to save their lives. They lost, 5-2. I did get to see Carlos Beltran hit a double and a triple, though. Aside from that, it wasn't a great game for the Wachtel family. It was still an enjoyable night though. Most of the Reds' fans weren't overly annoying (aside from the 20somethings who were sitting behind us, who drank a little too much and heckled a little too much ... but they were easily tuned out). The fireworks show after the game helped that.
Anyway, here is a photo album depicting my exploits. It's incredibly long; I took over 100 pictures. I'll probably do some captions tomorrow. If you're my "friend" on Facebook, I posted them in a two part album entitled "Meet the Mets," with Part One: David Wright is Ten Feet Away and Part Two: John Maine is a Whore. So take a look at that, I suppose.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Deadline Deals: NL Central
Deadline Deals is a column I'll be writing talking about, obviously, trades near the MLB trading deadline. Whenever a major deal goes down, I'll focus on that division division: I'll discuss what trades have already been made and then speculate on further trade possibilities in the division. Since the first big trades are all in the NL Central, that's where my focus will be today.
It's one of my favorite times in baseball season...trading season. It's always one of the most exciting parts of the year.
As you all surely know, two big trades already went down. CC Sabathia is now a Brewer in return for a bunch of minor league prospects, and Rich Harden is a Cub in exchange for Matt Murton and another prospect package.
Personally, I think the Cubs won the arms race here. Although Sabathia is without a doubt a better pitcher than Harden, the Cubs added a lot of depth to their already pretty good pitching rotation. Also, while the Brewers are more than likely going to be put in the difficult position next year of choosing between Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia, (my money is on Sheets...again, Sabathia is the better pitcher, but Sheets is Milwaukee's boy.) the Cubs have both Carlos Zambrano and Harden locked up for at least another year. If the Cubs falter this year, they can still make another good run next year. Milwaukee, on the other hand, went the all-or-nothing route.
But enough about those trades. You know about those trades already. They've been covered, re-covered, and analyzed to death on every media outlet in America. I'd like to take the time to discuss some possible trades.
The Cardinals aren't out of the NL Central race yet, either...are they going to beef up at the deadline this year? They're too good to be a seller, but at this point a run for them will be pretty difficult. Their best move would probably be to stand pat and see what happens with their current team, but what is logical isn't always what Major League GMs do...that's what makes trade season so exciting. My bet is the Cardinals will make a minor move before the deadline is up, but nothing earth-shattering. They'll probably trade away some middling prospects in exchange for a batter to protect Pujols in the lineup.
The Astros are one of those teams that needs to be a seller, but outside of Lance Berkman, they don't really have the trading chips to get a big return. Trading Lance Berkman in the middle of a career year to a contender would probably be the best bet the Astros have of contention in years to come, but I don't imagine it would be a wildly popular move in Houston.
Roy Oswalt would be a good trading chip any other year, but this year despite the fact that he's right in line with his average strikeout production - 94 at the time of this writing - he's also on pace to walk a lot more batters than a typical Roy Oswalt season. Batters are having a much easier time hitting Oswalt that they have in the past. The worst part is, not a lot of it can be blamed on luck...so far this year, Roy Oswalt's opponents are sporting a .329 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against him. A normal range is anywhere from .290 to .320, meaning Roy Oswalt is only having a very negligent amount of bad luck. He's also given up 18 home runs so far this year...that ties his career high, and the season isn't even over yet. He's sporting a 1.38 WHIP and a 4.56 ERA...that's .35 points higher than the league average. The truth of the matter is that Roy Oswalt's best days are probably behind him. The Astros are probably best served to take a gamble and hope he'll rebound a little bit next year, then trade him.
Of course, the Astros won't be sellers this year anyway. Ed Wade is the type of GM that thinks of prospects only as a mean to the end of getting more veteran players, regardless of his team's standing at the deadline. As such, he already threw all of his prospects at a deal for Miguel Tejada, who's had the worst All-Star season ever, and who was never really all that great anyway. Expecting a GM like that to sell high on guys like Lance Berkman to restock the minor league system is probably going to end in a letdown. If he were to trade anyone, he'd probably give up either Hunter Pence or JR Towles, but I don't think even Ed Wade is that stupid.
The Reds, as everyone knows, will be a seller. This isn't speculation, it's fact. The Reds are rebuilding right now, and so far they're doing a fantastic job. They have an excellent core of talented young players like Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, and Brandon Phillips. These players all show great promise...though you wouldn't know it by looking at Homer Bailey's BR page. They're going to want to build on that core, and the best way to do that, which the Reds have already acknowledged they're going to try to do, is to trade some of their solid veteran talent for younger players and prospects. Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr are some of the best bats on the market, without a doubt.
Look for Dunn to go to an AL team, as even though he's one of the best hitters in the league, he plays outfield like a dehydrated little leaguer and would probably best be served as the DH for a team making a playoff push. Maybe the Rays would be a good fit, but I haven't heard anything about them targeting Dunn.
Griffey, on the other hand, could go just about anywhere. Even though he's declining with age both with the stick and on the field, a declining Ken Griffey Jr is still one of the best all-around athletes in the majors. Put him out there, and somebody will buy, and they'll pay a hefty price for him too. Look for some huge deals regarding both Dunn and Griffey. (And hey, with one or both of them gone, Dusty Baker can fulfill his boyish fantasy of making Corey Patterson an everyday player. Everybody wins...that is, except the Reds this year.)
And last, but certainly not least, your writer's favorite team, the Pittsburgh Pirates. This trading season will shape what new GM Neil Huntington's tenure will be like. So far, he's made all the right moves...he's assembled a decent bench from the scrapheap, he's loaded up on low risk, high reward free agents for the minors, and he had a draft that Scout.com ranked as second best in the majors this year. The only way he could screw up now is by messing up this trading deadline like his predecessor did every year. That will be tough for him, not only because he's a new GM, but because the Pirates have built up a reputation of being a team that will give you a lot for little return. See: Aramis Ramirez trade.
This year the Pirates are in the rare position (for them) of having SIGNIFICANT selling power at the deadline. Jason Bay rebounded from his last bad year in a big way, and he's having an excellent year so far. He also has another year on his contract after this one, making him more sought after than better outfielders like the aforementioned Dunn and Griffey. Xavier Nady is an average player who would platoon on most other teams, but he's having a career year that makes him look like a real slugger. Need a reliever? Damaso Marte is effective both as a setup man and a left-handed specialist. The Pirates are in a position to really stock the minors here. Even if they can't trade Marte, if he leaves as a free agent they get two compensatory draft picks in the second round...you have to like that situation.
There are a lot of teams interested in what the Pirates are offering. The Rays are reported to be interested in all three of the major players, but most notably Nady and Marte. Tampa would probably be the best bet for the Pirates here, as their system is so loaded that they won't miss a few of the prospects the Pirates so direly need, and Tampa is in a position where they're feeling the pressure from Boston and they have to do something to patch up their weaknesses if they want to stay competitive this year. The Pirates have what they need.
Another team with a lot of buzz surrounding them regarding the Pirates trading chips is the Dodgers, who have a GM that's got a reputation for bad deals. As a Pirates fan, that makes me giddy. I've heard rumors about Matt Kemp for Jack Wilson, straight up. I've also heard a package of as many as three top prospects for Wilson from the Dodgers. I'm hesitant to believe that, but like I said, Ned Colletti has made worse moves in the past, and like Ed Wade, he values veteran players way more than prospects. Neil Huntington has said he would prefer to keep Wilson...that may be true, or it may be posturing to send the Dodgers, who are in desperate need of a shortstop, into panic mode.
That being said, the asking price for Nady and Bay is said to be sky high, by some reports as much as two top prospects. I could see the Pirates backing off a little on Nady, though. He's gone after this year no matter what they do...if they don't make a move, it would still be useless to resign him because AAA prospect Steve Pearce is knocking on the door for Nady's position. Look for the Pirates to get either a single top prospect or a top and middling prospect for Nady.
Of course, it's all speculation as to what Huntington will actually do. He has no history as a GM before this year, and he has yet to make a trade. All of my guesses are just based on interviews I've read that make him sound like a pretty smart guy.
Well, that wraps up the NL Central. Look for another post like this one next time there's a big trade.
Sure He Can't Drink, But He Can Lead
Since the four letter network believes it is ok to constantly talk about football in the off season I will counteract that with some interesting off season NHL news.
My beloved Chicago Blackhawks have named 20 year old Jonathan Toews the captain of the team. This makes Toews the third youngest captain in NHL history behind "Sid the Kid" Crosby from the Pittsburgh Penguins and Vincent Leclavalier of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Additionally this makes me feel like a failure since I am 337 days older than him and he has already accomplished so much more than I ever will.
Honestly as a person who follows the Hawks, I think this is a really great choice. From every interview he has been in to what his teammates say, he seems like a fantastic leader. Not to mention he was second on the team in goals and fourth in points...all in his rookie season.
The future is looking bright for the Blackhawks, hopefully they can win the Central this year instead of watching the Wings win it again.
Boom...outta here.
Real "reporting"
I will be attending the Mets-Reds game tonight in Cincinnati, so I will have a chance to experience a game firsthand and recount the experience. I'll bring back pictures.
Of course, that means no posts for me today. Sorry. I know everyone will miss me tons.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Oh yeah. Bow before your new writer.
Well...not really...you don't HAVE to bow, but it would be appreciated.
I've been enlisted by Peter to be a writer for this fine sports blog here, and since the majority of the current readers probably don't know who I am, allow me to introduce myself. My name is Nate Rose. Obviously, being that I write for this blog, I'm a sports fan. My favorite professional teams are all from Pittsburgh, as I was raised in eastern Ohio in Pittsburgh's broadcasting market. I left at the spry young age of eight years old to come to Indiana, taking with me fond memories of Mario Lemieux, Kordell "Slash" Stewart, (those memories later grew less fond) and...well...the promise that the Pirates would win some day. (Seriously, the law of averages says that they HAVE to win some day.) I never turned my allegiances back. Oh, I also like Ohio State football and couldn't care less about basketball.
My favorite sport is baseball, but since my favorite team is the Pirates, I think this video here can do a better job of explaining why I follow football and hockey more closely than my words ever could (courtesy of Bugs and Cranks):
It's not that I don't love the Pirates...I do. It's just that they're so infuriating. In the past few years, the Steelers have delivered a Super Bowl title, the Penguins have delivered a Stanley Cup run with the promise of more to come, and the Pirates have put themselves in the position to set a record for the longest streak of consecutive losing seasons by any professional team in the history of ever. They're so bad that for two consecutive years they've played the New York Yankees, the most famous team in baseball, winner of more championships than any team in any sport in interleague play. Both years, not a single game from that series was broadcast nationally because there was no interest. That's a bad ballclub. And that's part of the problem, too...they're so bad that they're almost impossible to follow. They're not broadscast on national TV because nobody cares about them. They're barely mentioned on Baseball Tonight. So I'm relegated to watching ESPN Sunday/Wednesday Night Baseball instead of a Pirates game unless the Pirates happen to be playing against the Cubs on WGN, or sometimes the Reds or Cardinals on FSN. I can't afford an MLB.TV subscription, so I'm stuck reading about them and following them only irregularly. Contrast this with the Steelers, who get at least 5 nationally broadcast prime-time games every year and the Penguins, who are basically the NHL's biggest hope of becoming popular in America and thus are broadcast all the time. On the upside, it looks like new GM Neal Huntington is a very smart guy with a great idea of what he needs to do to transform this team into a contender, starting with an excellent draft.
In baseball philosophy, I'm what you would call a "stathead." I'm really into sabermetrics, I believe stats like RBI, saves, and wins/losses for a pitcher are frankly quite stupid. I believe stats don't "tell the whole story" in baseball, just the most important parts of it, and in some cases even tell stories that the human eye can't, including things like Derek Jeter being among the worst defensive shortstops in baseball. I don't know what it is about baseball...I hate doing math problems, but I'll spend anywhere in the neighborhood of 3 hours figuring out the average DICE of the pitchers in all my fantasy leagues. Sometimes when I'm bored I'll look up stats on Baseball Reference just for fun. And before you say it, no, I do not live in my mother's basement and I do, in fact, have better things to do. And no, I don't hate baseball (quite the opposite) and I do realize that it's played by actual human beings on a field.
Well, this has turned into quite a ramble. I promise my next few posts will contain some actual substance. Anyway, that's a glimpse of who I am and where I'm coming from in respect to sports. Look for more interesting posts from me in the future.
tl;dr: I'm the new guy and I like Pittsburgh sports.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
All-Star hit list
Dan Uggla has to be the sickest man in America right now. I never thought I would miss Chase Utley.
So the All-Star Game was last night (and partially this morning), and once again the National League lost. Thanks a lot, guys. I can't even take solace in my team's players doing well (like in 2006), because they didn't. Billy Wagner did his thing -- that is, giving up a run -- and D-Wright didn't really do all that well either, though at least he did get a hit.
So as a nice cathartic exercise for myself, I'm going to place the blame squarely where it belongs. And for everyone's convenience, I will do it in list form. The list will be in the order of who I think of first. So let's get it on.
1. Clint Hurdle
Ever wonder why last year's NL champs suck so much? I think we may have gotten a clue last night. I'd put Hurdle behind only Bob Brenly as the worst All-Star Game manager ever. His biggest single blunder to me was his use of relievers in the eighth inning. His first mistake -- using the Giants' Brian Wilson and his 4.58 ERA in to start the inning instead of the Mets' Billy Wagner -- ended up working out okay, since Wilson got the two batters he faced out. That screw-up led to another, though, when Hurdle used Wagner as a left-handed specialist to try to get the third out.
That was a problem not because Wagner is easily better than Wilson, or even because Wagner just deserves the respect of setting up Brad Lidge. It was a problem because it is a well-known and well-documented fact (and not just among Mets fans) that Billy Wagner does not enter games in the middle of innings. It's actually to the point where I've heard people joke about how he has a clause in his contract that he only has to enter games at the start of innings. Well, evidently Clint didn't talk to any of his players about this. Wagner entered with two outs, and he shockingly gave up a run to tie the game.
That inning was just an example. There were several ill-timed stolen base attempts, and a botched hit-and-run or two, but I was particularly annoyed by the eighth inning, mostly because I more or less predicted exactly how that inning would pan out. The moral: I could have done a better job than Clint Hurdle of managing the NL All-Star team.
2. Dan Uggla
This poor bastard literally had be screaming obscenities into one of my friend Rachel's couch pillows. This says it all:
0 for 4, 3 Ks, 1 GIDP, 6 men LOB, 3 fielding errors
I mean, really? In retrospect, I'm not even mad. I just feel bad for the man, especially after Ken Rosenthal mentioned that it was Uggla's life-long dream to play in Yankee Stadium, because of his dead grandfather or something like that. I swear to God, I'm almost crying just writing this. But really, he cost the National League the game almost single-handedly.
3. Brad Lidge
Really, Brad? The one game I want you to pitch well in is the one you decide to blow? I swear, this man has a personal vendetta against my happiness. This is just another reason to hate the Phillies and everything they stand for. Oh, and another one is coming up soon. To both of you: Boom. Outta here.
4. Edinson Volquez
I'm so glad he's smiling, but maybe Edinson should have considered actually pitching well in addition to enjoying himself. I know the Reds kind of suck, but for some people the All-Star Game is kind of important -- you know, this time it counts. A little more penitence after feeding your gopher would have been nice. I think I'll take Josh Hamilton.
5. Corey Hart
It's well-documented that I don't think Corey Hart should have been at the All-Star Game. Johnny Damon called, he wants his arm back. Seriously, if we're going to have guys in this game who can't cut off balls going to the wall and who can't get a ball to home plate without bouncing it TWICE, couldn't they at least like ... hit the ball once or something?
Now that was fun, wasn't it? I will say this about this year's All-Star Game, though: it's pretty admirable for the NL squad that they were able to make the game so close after screwing up every phase of the game -- pitching, hitting, managing, even picking the team. Though I'm not really sure whether that cheers me up or depresses me further. Argh.
All-Star/Mid-Season Recap
I hope everyone found time to sleep between the 1:37 am EST conclusion of the All-Star game and when they needed to be at work. The American League has once again proven their supremacy over the NL (they also have won seven of the last ten championships).
This all-star game has proven one thing, that New York Yankee fans are classless.
I know that the Red Sox are your rivals, but I thought the constant booing of every BoSox was a bit excessive. Yet I do understand because I am from Indy and we do the same thing to the Patriots. Regardless, I'm counting that as strike one.
Secondly, (this piggybacks off the last strike) you guys threatened a pregnant woman's life. Why did they threaten her you ask? Because she was Jonathan Papelbon's wife. Seriously, there is no reason why you should threaten a pregnant woman, and because she's the wife of your rival's closer is no excuse. Here's the full story on this: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/allstar08/news/story?id=3491135. Strike Two.
This is where New York strikes out though. When that game ended last night, the historic, soon to be demolished, greatest stadium ever, best place to see a ballgame, "star of the all-star game", best thing since Christ's birth, Yankee Stadium was half-full. Seriously? I mean I know it was late and all when the game ended, but if you are going to make a huge deal out how this is the last all-star game, at least stay until the game's end. Sure you may say that people had to work the next day, etc., and it is still an almost meaningless exhibition game. Yet if that is your argument, then it should not have been made out to be such a monumental event. For making Yankee Stadium look like Dolphin Stadium, that's strike three.
In baseball terms you guys are out, in real word terms you guys are classless chumps.
With the all-star break behind us, let's look forward to what is left for the rest of the season. We'll go division by division.
AL East
The big story here has to do with if the Rays can hold keep up the pace they had in the first half of the season. As a diehard Rays fan, I sincerely hope they can. Yet at the same time I fear that if they did indeed win the AL East, if the sky would turn black and the ground would split open, releasing flaming skulls with bat wings which would roam the surface...or maybe that just happens when they win the world series. Fears of the end times aside, if the Rays falter under the pressure, or if the young team can not last the season, the Sox will win this division and some team other than New York will get the wild card.
AL Central
The Twins/White Sox battle will be one to watch late into September. While another interesting story to follow will be if the Tigers can climb their way back into the fight. With that much talent, it would be surprising not so see some sort of run be made by Detroit.
AL West
It seems to me that the Angels have this division locked up. The main point of interest here will be to watch what the A's might do down the stretch. They seem to be a team that could very easily be in the playoff hunt, or very far from it.
NL East
Philly, New York, and Florida will all be striving for the crown in the second half. Something seems to be clicking between the Mets and new manager Jerry Manuel. One thing is clear with this division though, never count out Florida. The multi-year cycle of "win championship. trade team for prospects. win championship. repeat." might be due this year. So never count out the Marlins.
NL Central
While it looks like it, I don't think the 100 year curse is ending this year. The Cardinals might end up winning this division in the end, or possibly even Milwaukee (if CC keeps hitting home runs...).
NL West
Torre is a great manager, and that makes Los Angeles deadly. The Diamondbacks might be able to hold them off, but it seems doubtful.
That's all for now.
Boom...outta here!
