And so it starts. Opening Day is about a week away, and I couldn't possibly be happier. Just around the corner is baseball, warm weather, and not school. If you're reading this blog you're probably looking forward to the season starting as much as I am. So before our heads all explode from anticipation, let's make with the predictions.
American League West
1. Angels
2. Athletics
3. Mariners
4. Rangers
This one's tough, but I'm pretty sure that the downgrades made by the Angels aren't going to be outweighed by the upgrades made by the A's. I'm not too worried about Lackey's injury.
AL Central
1. Twins
2. White Sox
3. Royals
4. Tigers
5. Indians
The Twins looked good last year, and the experience their young players gained can only help. The Royals have to improve at some point, and I think this will be the year. The Tigers are probably going to be about the same as last year, mostly because I have little to no confidence in their pitching.
AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Rays
3. Yankees
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles
I like the Red Sox rotation a lot, and their bullpen should be good as usual. The lineup could be an issue, but I don't think the Rays have much better, and their rotation's advantage is outweighed by the relatively weak bullpen. Sabathia and Teixiera are both overrated to me, and Burnett will probably not make all his starts -- and even if these names play to their potential, the Rays still have at least as good a rotation, and the Yankee outfoeld is hit or miss. Jeter's aging, and I just don't see the lineup and rotation in the Bronx being as good as people would have you believe. The Rays will win the wild card, and the top three will be very close.
National League West
1. Diamondbacks
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. Padres
5. Rockies
Webb and Haren will do this year what I thought they would last year -- that is to say, they will be dual aces and lead the D-Backs back to the playoffs. Manny will help the Dodgers, but they don't have enough other pieces, especially after losing Lowe to Atlanta. The Giants are on their way back to not sucking, but they won't be quite good enough this year to make the playoffs.
NL Central
1. Cubs
2. Cardinals
3. Astros
4. Brewers
5. Pirates
6. Reds
This is going to be a pretty weak division, aside from the Cubs. They've improved a bit from last year, but they're not winning anything of consequence. The rest of the division is largely a crapshoot of teams that are pretty similar on the surface. The Brewers don't have much of anything without Sabathia and Sheets.
NL East
1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
The Mets, I think, have fixed their biggest problem -- if they'd had K-Rod and Putz last year, they very well could have won the division, the pennant, and the championship. They have them now. If Delgado doesn't regress, Wright progresses, and Murphy the Wunderkind continues to be awesome, this could very well be the team to beat in the National League, along with the Cubs and their rivals the Phillies. The offense needs to not be this year's problem, though (with the rotation costing the Mets the division in 2007, and the bullpen and a swath of injuries costing them last year). I don't think Philadelphia did enough to improve this offseason, and though they are very good -- and will make the playoffs -- this is the year the Mets will finally play the way they should have been for the past two years and take the division. The Braves improved, but they kind of sucked to begin with and I don't think that Derek Lowe is going to solve much of anything, especially with Smoltz moving to Boston.
Playoffs?
ALDS:
Boston over Los Angeles (3 games)
Tampa Bay over Minnesota (4 games)
NLDS:
New York over Chicago (5 games)
Arizona over Philadelphia (4 games)
ALCS:
Boston over Tampa Bay (7 games)
NLCS:
New York over Arizona (6 games)
World Series:
New York over Boston (6 games)
And yes, I really have to pick the Mets to win the World Series. I can't not pick them. But the rest of these predictions are mostly unbiased and based on how I think things will actually happen. To clarify, though: I do honestly believe that the Mets can win the World Series, especially in the scenario I've predicted. But if I had to handicap the Series winner now, just without any other variables, I would probably bet on the Red Sox or the Rays right now.
But I pick the Mets, and I will stand by that prediction.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
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2 comments:
Gosh, no love for the Ohio teams. I don't think either one will finish at the bottom of their division. Especially since the Reds have a very nice rotation, developing young talent, and you can't overlook the fact they have Pittsburgh and Houston in their division... And the Indians somehow find themselves in contention for their division year after year...
Unless Hafner goes back on the juice, I expect nothing from the Indians. Lee's going to come back down to earth, and he's basically all they had last year. And with Dusty Baker still on board, expect little from the Reds. If they don't get rid of him soon, that "nice rotation" is going to turn into a triage. They're not better than the Astros, I don't think. They'll probably beat out Pittsburgh, but one of these days the Pirates have to finish not in last place. So I choose this year.
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