Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Six Stats That Define The Pirates' 2009 Season

With the baseball season approaching the All-Star break and the halfway point, I'd like to take a look at some of the statistics that have defined this season for my favorite team.

Despite the fact that the Pirates are slated to be a losing club, there are things to be optimistic about. Not winning this year, of course, but still some encouraging signs that progress is finally happening in Pittsburgh. In the following, I'll highlight six statistics that have defined the 2009 season for the Pittsburgh Pirates so far.

1. 43. That's the number of home runs hit by the Pirates as a team. Total. That's a pathetic number for an entire team. 43 is a number close to what you would expect Adam Dunn to produce at year's end by himself. This, more than anything, indicates the total lack of power on the Pirates baseball team.

2. 10. The total number of triples hit by Andrew McCutchen and Nyjer Morgan. They've each hit five this season, tied for the league lead. McCutchen is even more impressive as he's collected all of his triples in just 87 plate appearances since being called up. He's a special talent, and most scouts agree that he has the best speed from first to third in all of professional baseball.

In this lineup, speed kills, and if Nyjer Morgan is hitting (because McCutchen almost always is), it's a deadly top of the lineup. On a good day, the Pirates can score eight runs without any coming from a homer.

3. 24.2%. The percentage of balls hit by Andy LaRoche that are line drives. Pirates post-game host Rocco DeMaro has dubbed him Andy LaRoche, line drive machine, and the numbers certainly bear that out.

After crapping the bed in his 183 plate appearances with the Pirates last year and going 0-for-16 to start the season, Luigi, as he is affectionately known (as opposed to his older brother across the diamond—Adam—known as Mario), has blossomed into one of the best, most consistent hitters in the Pirates lineup. His defense is not too shabby either.

So far, Andy LaRoche has flashed almost everything that made him a top prospect in the minors. Excellent plate discipline (20 BB to 36 K), good contact, and a neutral if not plus glove at third base. He still hasn't shown the 20-25 home run power that most scouts expect from him, but at 25 years old, he has time. The line drives and doubles power are encouraging signs that usually blossom into home run power as players mature.

4. .325/.356/.518. The batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage of Andrew McCutchen since being called up to the Major Leagues.

At only 22 years old, the Pirates control McCutchen's contract for the next six years, and he looks to be a huge cornerstone to their future success if they're to have it.

According to most projection systems, McCutchen was supposed to have a mediocre year (which would still be good for a 22 year old) before blossoming into the super-prospect he was hyped as.

There's still plenty of time for McCutchen to regress and bear those projections out, but so far he has looked VERY comfortable at the Major League level, flashing all five tools and showing no signs of slowing down. Already, he looks like one of the best leadoff men in all of baseball. If he keeps up his current pace, he's a shoo-in for NL Rookie of the Year.

5. 4.39. The collective ERA of the Pirates pitching staff. The Pittsburgh starters have looked very good this year, and they can credit the majority of that improvement to vastly improved team defense behind them.

According to most defensive metrics, the Pirates have the best defensive outfield in the Major Leagues. In addition, the infield has been improved over last year's version due to Andy LaRoche replacing the flashy-yet-ineffective Jose Bautista at third base. Couple this with the always steady gloves of Jack Wilson and Adam LaRoche, and the Pirates have a plus defensive infield as well.

All this has done wonders for the Pirates pitching staff. Every rotation member except for Ian Snell—who it may be time to give up on ever being good again—has been a pleasant surprise. Zach Duke, especially, has proven that if you give him a good defense playing behind him, his 2005 rookie numbers were not a mirage.

The bullpen was expected to be one of the worst in the Majors this year, but injuries have actually helped to BOLSTER the 'pen.

At the start of the season, the Pirates had several bullpen pitchers that were either out of options or were Rule 5 picks and therefore had to play in the Majors for a full year in order for the team to retain the rights to their contract. There were better options in AAA, but no space in the 'pen to accomodate them.

Injuries are rarely fortunate for a team, but they have allowed the Pirates to clear space for several of the aforementioned AAA players by moving injured bullpen arms to the DL. In addition, the Bucs have seen a few pleasant surprises from their 'pen, namely solid performances by Jesse Chavez and Steven Jackson.

Finally, the Nate McLouth trade allowed the team to bolster the 'pen even more. One of the players received in that deal, Charlie Morton, has been inserted into Pittsburgh's starting rotation. This allowed the Bucs to move former #5 starter Jeff Karstens to the long relief role, where he'll probably remain for the rest of his career.

6. 17. With a losing season this year, that's how many consecutive losing seasons the Pirates will have had. That's enough to break the previous record—held by the Philadelphia Phillies—for the most consecutive losing seasons in any professional sport.

With the club below .500 so far and likely out of contention by the trading deadline, it looks as though the Pirates will be spending this year selling veteran talent to other teams in exchange for prospects. Players like Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, John Grabow and Jack Wilson are unlikely to return for next year.

In all likelihood, the Major League team will be horrifyingly bad after the trade deadline, and 17 is almost assured.

Yet despite this, the Pirates have legitimate hope of being a competitive team in the next few years. The silver lining on this wholly depressing cloud is that the club for once has a legitimate core of young players to build around. Not that Pirates fans haven't heard that before.

The previous two front office regimes both promoted several cores of exciting young players, but for the most part, those cores were mirages—players aged 28-30 who were mediocre even in their peak seasons. For several years, Jason Bay was the only legitimate building block on any Pirates team.

This time, I can personally promise there is a core of actual young players that are performing very well—and haven't even peaked yet.

The aforementioned Andrew McCutchen is in his rookie season this year, meaning that the Pirates control his contract for six years. Andy LaRoche, line drive machine, is under club control for four years after this one.

25 year old right fielder Brandon Moss is under club control for five more years, and while he has been mostly a disappointment with the bat so far, he's played stellar outfield defense and his bat has been heating up lately.

25 year old starting pitcher Charlie Morton is under control for five years after this season, and while his Major League sample with the Bucs so far is too small to get exited about (yet still good), his AAA numbers from the first half of this season are certainly enough to believe that he could be a front-end starter.

And that's not all. There is help on the way coming from the minors.

24 year old pitcher Brad Lincoln, 20 year old OF Jose Tabata and 22 year old 3B(/1B?) Pedro Alvarez all figure to be in the Majors sooner rather than later, though Alvarez will have to work on striking out less before he gets that far.

This team is likely to set a record for the most losing seasons in sporting history, and they're likely to have one or two more losing seasons after this one. Due to the barren farm system the previous regime left behind, most of the organiation's top talent is in the low levels of the minors and several years away from playing at the MLB level.

However, if the team continues building their minor league system the way they have been and don't give up in favor of signing and trading for aged, useless players like previous regimes have, they stand a good chance of becoming one of the most feared teams in baseball.

I'll take that trade. I'll suffer through more losing if it leads to competing for World Series titles instead of competing for a .500 record. It's easy for me to understand why so many Pirates fans are upset when they see players like Nate McLouth traded, because we've seen it happen before for lesser returns. I just hope that I'm right and that these frustrated fans can stick with the Bucs long enough to see a winner.

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